Whatever

I stumbled upon this little piece of amazingness while shuffling through an otherwise pedestrian Shira Springer column in the Globe today and felt the need to share:

"If Phoenix doesn't work out as a trading partner, there is speculation around the league about a possible deal with Seattle that would bring forward Rashard Lewis to Boston. Lewis reportedly is good friends with Gerald Green and would consent to the deal if Green is not a part of the package."

I'm sorry, but I find it absolutely fucking hilarious that a marquee free agent wants to come to Boston in order to play with Gerald Green. I mean, has Rashard ever watched a Celtics game? Don't get me wrong, I think Gerald is probably a really great guy, and both he and Rashard are from Houston (though Lewis is six years older), but aside from the occasionally insane flashes of brilliance, Gerald Green kind of sucks at basketball. This is kind of like if Barry Zito had signed with the Sox last year because he wanted to play with Wily Mo Pena.

Truthfully, I'm not a huge Rashard Lewis fan and I don't think he's the answer for the C's. First of all, he's going to command an outrageous salary wherever he goes, mostly because the free agent market is weak this year and someone is always down to overpay guys who put up flashy numbers, even though Rashard's numbers aren't even really that flashy. Last year he averaged 22.4 ppg, but 6.6 rpg is pretty awful for a guy who's 6-10 and who the C's would definitely want to see spending some time around the basket. Also, he's never averaged even one block per game, which is also alarming considering his height and the fact that he frequently lines up as a 3 against guys who are at least 2-3 inches shorter. I'm not trying to dispute the fact that Rashard Lewis is a nice player, but he's definitely not a franchise guy even though he'll almost certainly end up getting paid like one. Normally I'd say that I don't see Danny biting here, which is the wise decision, except for the fact that as Springer points out, the Sonics have perpetually-injured Robert Swift, for whom Ainge has been sporting an inexplicable hard-on since 2004. Still, I don't think this will happen, if for no other reason than that the Sonics have Durant coming (god damn them) and can probably get more for Lewis than what the C's can afford to offer.

Doc's Misuse of Ryan Gomes

Nearly everyone likes Ryan Gomes. He’s smart, gritty, humble – and good. Similar to Shane Battier, Gomes is a player who does all the little things well. We often hear any team in the league would want Gomes because of this. But I must admit – I hated watching Ryan this past year. His situation typifies Doc not utilizing the talents of his players.

To understand this year's Gomes, we have to look at his rookie year. He was drafted 50th overall in the ’05 draft, meaning that most of us had low hopes for him – I personally figured he’d be slightly better than Justin Reed, and that was all. Till February of ’06 he hardly played, never logging more than twenty minutes in a game. He never reached double figures in either points or rebounds, or came anywhere close most of the time.

With the C’s running out of bodies, Gomes finally got his “big chance” on February 10. He responded mightily, averaging 14 ppg and 9.3 rebs the rest of February. Now, it can be debated whether Doc should have noticed Gomes was one of his better players earlier, but we’ll give him a mulligan – this stuff happens. Rick Carlisle did the same thing with Tayshaun Prince his rookie year. Anyway, it was exhilarating to see Ryan Gomes break out – Pierce’s sublime season and Gomes’ grand entrance were the two best stories for the Celtics in ’05-’06 (if you don’t include the stellar play of Dan Dickau.)

The greatness of Gomes his rookie year was his knack to outquick larger power forwards and centers. Whether it was in rebounding or creating a shot, Gomes' superior speed and intelligence made him an extremely effective power forward the latter part of the season. His game was finesse and strength, the same as it had been collegiately, but what was rather shocking was how nicely it translated to the pros. Gomes’ size was not a distinct limitation, and he was still able to work within twelve feet of the basket almost exclusively. He could no longer dominate like at Providence, but was a supremely capable pro.

Gomes seemed the perfect undersized power forward for the Celtics. To watch him put back a rebound sandwiched between two bigger guys never ceased to entertain, and he did it all the time. His innate ability to get the right angles and spacing were a huge reason why the Celtics didn’t look like shit in late winter ’06. He was probably the most likable player on the roster.

Then ’06-’07 arrived. There had been talk since Gomes’ arrival in the league that he needed to significantly upgrade his outside shot. Although he disproved this theory with his successful rookie season, everybody was still talking about it. Gomes apparently heard the murmurs. From the beginning of the exhibition season he was taking jumpers from 15-18 feet. This was a terrible idea.

Turning Gomes into a jump shooter completely destroys his effectiveness. Gomes thrives on activity, by pounding on the inside he is able to get subtle but substantial angles to rebound or get off a good shot. To consistently have him seventeen feet away from the basket to spot up is…completely nuts. How Doc Rivers could not see this totally confounded me throughout the year. People talked about Ryan’s jump shooting, but they never talked about at what expense he was paying for it. Doc severely worsened the situation by experimenting with Gomes at small forward, therefore insuring that Ryan would be nowhere near the paint.

Because there are very few, if any, set plays for Gomes, it had to be mainly his own volition to shoot jumpers. But that does not mean he is solely to blame. If Rivers had used common sense he would have realized that at worst Gomes was the second best big man he had. And big men with inside skills should play on the inside. They don’t belong masquerading as small forwards. Gomes also had a much harder time defending quick forwards as opposed to big men. So by allowing Ryan to be a perimeter player Doc shot himself in the foot (again.)

A big reason why the Celtics only won 23 games was because Gomes was just a passive cog in the machine this past year. His numbers were similar, but he was a completely different player. Players like Gomes cannot be judged by statistics, they can be judged by how well their team performs as a whole when they are on the court. Being so far out of his element, Gomes floundered, showing sometimes glimpses of brilliance mixed in with far too much perimeter mediocrity. It reached an absurd finale when Gomes became a three point shooter at the end of the year. He is such a bright player hopefully he can figure it out, and maybe he will even develop a decent outside game, but for what it’s worth: Ryan, don’t listen to what snooty scouts say - you’re a power forward, play like one, you’re good at it.

Matrix Revolution?

Is that a sweet fucking photo or what? I can safely say that nobody will ever take a photograph like that of me, and honestly that makes me a little sad.

Anyways, the estimable Chad Ford over at ESPN reports on his blog (subscription required, goddamit) that rumors are circulating of a potential C's deal for Shawn Marion. Apparently Ainge was in LA on Wednesday privately working out Yi Jianlian. Take it away, Chad:

"If Boston is passing on Yi, I think that means we might see a trade coming. There's talk that the Suns -- to slash payroll -- might be willing to take the No. 5 pick, Theo Ratliff's expiring contract and Delonte West for Shawn Marion. That would make Paul Pierce happy."

Now, it's obviously part of Chad Ford's job description to report on wild speculation, and he's truly outstanding at it, so this might be absolutely nothing. On the other hand, Ford also has considerable and often unrivaled access and a real knack for breaking stories, so maybe this thing has legs. In any event, allow me to go on record as saying that if Ainge can pull this deal off I think it's an excellent trade for the C's and would go a long way towards (partially) repairing Danny's rep in my eyes. Because it's Saturday morning and there's precious else I'd rather do than drink coffee and obsess about the Celtics, I will now analyze the living shit out of this imaginary trade that will probably never happen.

In my mind the only guys worth holding on to the fifth pick for are Brandan Wright, Al Horford, and possibly Corey Brewer if Ainge is ready to trade Pierce and blow up the team, but I don't think that's happening. Danny genuinely believes that with one more legitimate impact player, combined with the stunning awfulness of the Eastern Conference, this team can make some noise. And hey, maybe he's right. It's looking more and more like Atlanta's going to once again defy glaring need and take Brandan Wright over Mike Conley at 3 (which all but assures that Conley will become a dominant NBA point guard in the next couple years; Christ, at least I'm not a Hawks fan), and I think there's a good chance the Grizz take Horford, as he makes sense for them on a number of levels. That brings us to the C's; it seems as though Yi is definitely impressing people with his mystical private workout sessions, but I can't see us drafting him, since he's certainly a few years away and Ainge isn't big on overseas talent. However, he makes a ton of sense for a team like the Suns, who could afford to bring him along slowly and have a fabulous coach in D'Antoni who's got a great rep for developing foreign players. Alternately, the Suns could use the fifth pick and reach for Joakim Noah (who, as Simmons frequently notes, would be great in their system), or take someone like Brewer, who could quickly develop into a Marion-type slasher without the considerable rebounding ability. So I can understand why the Suns would want the fifth pick. Ratliff's expiring deal is attractive if they're concerned about cap stuff, and Delonte might be a nice complementary player in that offense. I still think giving up Marion is idiotic--I firmly believe that it should be the Suns in the Finals right now, and as currently constructed they'll definitely contend again next year--but apparently the money thing is a big concern out there. If the Suns are set on unloading Marion's contract, this deal's not bad for them.

From the C's side of things, this deal would be huge. If things play out as many expect on draft day, the fifth pick is of questionable value for Danny & Co. I like Delonte a lot--he plays hard and smart and has come up big in some tight situations--but I honestly don't think he's ever going to develop into a legitimate NBA starter like we all continue to hope. He's never going to be a point guard, and lacks the size and offensive firepower to be a legit 2; I think he'll have a very productive career, but it'll be as a combo guard coming off a good team's bench. So I can stand giving him up.

Marion would be a godsend for the C's. He's a truly outstanding player who does a lot of things well and would be a huge asset in the Eastern Conference, where he'd frequently dominate other forwards. He's a very good scorer and a great rebounder and defender, and he'd be great alongside Pierce and Al. According to some accounts he's got something of a sour demeanor but it never seems to affect his play, and moving out of Nash's shadow might give him the recognition he always seems to crave, especially considering the numbers he could potentially put up in the East. He also makes a huge amount of sense in terms of the more up-tempo offense that Ainge and Doc always talk about running, and would probably even be a huge boon to Rajon Rondo in that he'd be yet another point of offensive distribution. If the C's can make this trade, I'm on board 100%; I really think that adding Shawn Marion while retaining Pierce and Jefferson makes us a playoff team.

Love Tim's Tony Allen post, btw. I seriously have no idea when or even if we'll see TA again. So it seems to go around here.

So this is what we got to look forward to....

Really? Are we buying this shit? Tony Allen's rehab is going good? Great! Sign me up for season tickets. The C's are a propaganda machine. Goddamn. Can't wait to read how Scal's diligently working on his jumper to get ready for the 25+ minutes per game Doc will play him in November. It really is the nadir.

The Specter of Brandon Roy

There's been some controversy over a statement I made in the previous post, namely my hypothesizing that the seventh pick in the draft "arguably could have landed us Brandon Roy." Roy, as most reading this know, was this past season's Rookie of the Year, and even more recently was the amiable good-luck charm that gleefully accepted the opportunity to draft Greg Oden and crush the hearts of Celtics (and Grizzlies, and Bucks, and Hawks, etc.) fans. It has been correctly pointed out that Roy was in fact picked with the sixth overall pick in the draft, as opposed to the seventh, which would appear to directly contradict my assertion that the C's could have had him with the pick that became Bassy "Tonz-o-Gunz" Telfair.

I stand by my assertion, though wish to further emphasize my use of the qualifier "arguably." On draft day last year the Portland Trailblazers managed to land both LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy with the fourth and seventh picks in the draft (nice fucking haul, by the way). They drafted Tyrus Thomas fourth, then sent him to Chicago along with Victor Khryapa for Aldridge, who the Bulls had drafted second. Reasonable enough. The Roy acquisition is considerably more strange. After drafting Randy Foye with the seventh pick, one pick after Minnesota had drafted Brandon Roy, the Blazers flipped Foye to Minnesota for Brandon Roy, straight up. Basically the Blazers traded the seventh pick in the draft for the sixth. Bizarre, but you can read the details on NBA.com here.

Now, I'm not sure why exactly they did this and lack the will to thoroughly research it, but I'm fairly certain it has something to do with money. See, if the Wolves really wanted Randy Foye over Brandon Roy all along (which apparently they did, further burnishing Kevin McHale's mantle of suckiness), if he's drafted sixth then they have to pay him a little bit more than if he's drafted seventh. Portland, not adverse to acquiring a guy that many people were already predicting would be the most effective rookie in the draft, made the deal. Randy Foye is a very nice player but it's hard not to wonder if the Wolves would have been better off with Roy, a hypothetical I'll save for the Wolves bloggers.

So the "arguably" that precedes that the C's could have had Roy assumes that McHale would have made the same deal with Ainge if the C's had kept the pick. This might not be true, which is why it's arguable. Many have casually thrown around the "we traded Roy for Telfair" summation-- Simmons himself has done this numerous times--which is simplistic and irresponsible and needs qualification. However, it's also not at all unreasonable to think that we could have had Brandon Roy with minimal effort if we'd held on to the seventh pick, and for myself and others, Roy haunts me like Faulkner's "ghosts" in Absalom, Absalom. Too much?

For a wildly hypothetical take on the Celtics-Roy "what might have been" that will nonetheless make you claw your eyes out in agony, check out this article by Ian Thomsen, published right after the Lottery. Thomsen goes so far as to note that if the C's don't trade the seventh pick to Portland for Telfair, Portland doesn't get Brandon Roy, Brandon Roy doesn't help lead the Blazers to exactly the 32 wins which would provide them with the Oden-winning ping pong ball. So if you want to get hypothetical and bitter to the point of near-insanity (and who doesn't) you might wonder aloud if Ainge's ill-conceived desire for Telfair resulted in what may now be 10-15 years of championship-caliber basketball in Portland. Nice.

The Point Guard Question

There's been quite a bit of talk 'round these parts about point guards recently, and it's a topic that deserves the discussion. If there's anything recent drafts and history have shown, it's that a marquee point guard is probably the second-most valuable draft commodity next to a can't-miss big man. Honestly though, NBA teams seem slow to learn this. Let's look back to 2005: knowing what we know now, is there any way the Bucks and Hawks take Bogut and Marvin Williams over Chris Paul and Deron Williams? No way. And the stupidest thing is, many people knew this then--that Paul and D. Williams were the two best players in draft--but the Bucks and Hawks chose to ignore it and draft for size and the all-elusive "upside." Both M. Williams and Bogut have been a'ight, totally serviceable, but both look like busts when held up against CP3 and D-Will, who at this point are inarguably two of the best young players in the League. As stat guru John Hollinger frequently fell over himself to point out (subscription required--sorry), Paul had the third-best rookie season of any guard, period, in NBA history (behind Oscar Robertson and Michael Jordan), whereas D-Will showed in this year's playoffs that he too is a franchise player and potential superstar. To Ainge's credit, he seemed to recognize Paul's potential excellence and worked hard to try to trade up and draft him, but in retrospect he should have worked even harder. The massive contributions of Boobie Gibson in the Cavs-Pistons series--who at #42 was the steal of the 2006 draft--further underscores the invaluable nature of a PG who can both run the show and put the ball in the hoop.

This brings us to the Celtics, who, as things currently stand, have no such player. The Telfair trade was an unmitigated disaster and, aside from the great tank, stands as the paramount embarrassment of the Ainge era. We arrogantly gave up a valuable lottery pick (which arguably could have landed us Brandon Roy) for a guy who had never convincingly demonstrated that he could play in the NBA, let alone lead a team. It was a classic case of Ainge foolishly thinking that if only Telfair played for us, he'd be the player Ainge/Brain Doctor/whoever just know he can be. This was the same logic used in acquiring Ricky Davis, Wally, Scalabrine and probably others, btw, but Telfair was an unprecedented disaster, and now will never play for the Celtics again and quite possibly will never see the NBA again, period.

Rajon Rondo is a far more interesting and potentially emboldening case. Ainge has been duly lauded for his draft prowess, and excepting only the timeless heist of Al Jefferson in 2004, landing Rondo at 21 in aught-six might go down as Ainge's finest moment. However, the key word in that sentence is might: indeed, I remain skeptical. Bethelehem Shoals at Free Darko penned a brilliant ode to Rondo's finer points a few months ago, and when I read stuff like this I desperately want to believe that we've landed the second coming of Jason Kidd. Fellow Headbander Tim loves him as well, as you're probably aware if you've been reading this space. I'm going to try and lay out a few of my hangups and see if we can't all benefit by helping me work through my Rondo-related anxieties and hesitations.

First and foremost--and this may have really nothing to do with Rondo, but I am still endlessly perplexed by it--if Ainge has always been so passionately convinced of Rondo's impending greatness, the Telfair acquisition makes even less sense. Granted, the Telfair trade went through before the draft, and there was no real way of Ainge knowing that Rondo would be there at 21, but this wasn't a shocking, Paul Pierce-style inexplicable fall. In this mock draft from last year the estimable NBAdraft.net had him going 25th. So if Ainge has always been so high on Rondo--and by his own account he has been--why the hell do you trade a lottery pick for Telfair? Even if you're concerned Rondo would be gone by 21, why not just trade up to say, 15? Why essentially spend a high lottery pick on a point guard if you're so convinced that the one you'll draft at 21 is an NBA-caliber starter? Granted, this may speak far more to the inconceivable idiocy of the Telfair trade than to the relative worth of Rondo, but I still find it perplexing, particularly when Ainge tosses off comments about Rondo being better than any PG in this year's draft which makes it all seem like part of some elaborate plan.

Secondly, the lack of anything resembling a jump shot bugs the shit out of me. Defenders point out that Jason Kidd couldn't shoot when he came into the League either, which is a fair enough observation, but Kidd averaged almost 12 ppg his rookie year and almost 17 his second year; while Rondo has a moderately higher FG% than Kidd did his rookie year, he averaged a little over 6ppg, and raise your hand if you see him coming close to 17ppg next year. Thought so. I understand that he's incredibly valuable in other ways--as a game manager, as a surprisingly prolific rebounder, as a potentially outstanding defender--but the fact that, at the moment, nobody needs to worry about guarding him is a cause for concern. If Rajon Rondo develops even a semi-consistent offensive game the C's become a vastly different team; if not, well, it's going to become an increasingly large problem.

Lastly--and again, this may not be any fault of Rondo's--a huge problem in terms of potentially overrating/overvaluing Rajon Rondo is the fact that the tank was on in full by the time he started getting legitimate minutes and started putting up those oh-so-enticing 12-8-7s and 13-10-4s. Basically he was throwing up some surprisingly effective numbers in an offensive system that could best be described as non-existent and for a team that was on a mission to lose games. It is important to bear in mind that even on a terrible team someone will fill up the box-score; it's certainly not Rajon Rondo's fault that management decided to junk the season and turn every game into garbage time, but he's really never been asked to run an NBA offense and until that happens I must reserve judgement.

This post has ended up being much longer than I intended, as seems to often happen. My basic point is this: I don't think we should draft Conley at five, and don't necessarily think Rajon Rondo isn't the answer at point for the C's. I need to see some improvement, though, starting next year, and starting with a motherfucking jump shot, dammit. At the moment Ainge's casual assertion that Rondo's better than any PG in this draft strikes me as frustratingly hollow, but that might just be my general and apparently unceasing rage toward management. The absolute best thing for this kid be the opportunity to learn behind a wizened and crafty veteran: it hurts to imagine how fucking perfect Gary Payton would have been for Rajon Rondo. Or how about a Mike Bibby? Nonetheless, I'm interested to watch this kid develop.

Law of the Draft

Just to follow up on the Mike Conley Jr. thing, here's what Acie Law IV had to say today in the Denver Post:

"I think I'm the best point guard, cut and dried," said Law, who averaged 18.1 points and 5.0 assists, leading the Aggies to the NCAA Sweet 16 this past season. "Conley's a great player, I'm not taking anything away from him. He led his team to the national championship. ... But I think he had a lot more help than I did. We're going to get the chance to work out against each other, and we'll prove it on the floor."

This quote is fucking great, I love it. Jack touched on what I meant yesterday when he called Conley no Chris Paul. It's not like Conley can't play, I think he'll be a fine pro, I just don't see him being an all-star. Therefore he shouldn't be a top 5 pick. Playing on a loaded team can make it tougher to evaluate how good a player really is. Conley has always gotten to play with Greg Oden, meaning he is always on winning teams. Everybody talks about what a "winner" Conley is, but when you have Greg Oden I think that helps more than just a little. I think it made Conley's career, because if Conley attended Kansas State this year there is no way we are talking about him being a potential top 10 pick in the 2007 draft. The same corollary can be applied to the Florida team, but in this case it is hard to figure out what it means. Jack loves Brewer. I personally think Noah will be the best pro. The majority seem to like Horford better than either of them. And then there is also Taurean Green and Chris Richard. When a college team is this loaded, and we have seen them so much, how is it we can decide which guys will be the best pros? Not one of them stood out over the others in college, and clearly all of them can play in the NBA - so where does that leave us? Perhaps they are all a bit overrated - or underrated. It reminds me of those Duke teams with Jay Williams, Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Carlos Boozer. That was a loaded team - and Boozer ends up getting drafted 35th and is easily the best player of the four.

Back to that quote - I think Acie Law IV is the best point guard in the draft. He's cocky in the best sense, has tons of experience leading an upstart college team, and has been Clutchy McClutch Clutch in college. He seems like a cross between Sam Cassell & Damon Stoudamire. That's the kind of guy you can gamble a top 5 pick on. He's not for the C's though, Ainge said last week Rondo was better than any point guard in this draft, and I agree.