Upsideseses!!!!

That sure seems to be the most overused watchword every year come draft time, and lord knows the Celtics did their best to blow up Chad Ford's thesaurus this year. I figured I'd weight in on last night's exciting-yet-confusing Celtics draft action, although honestly I pretty much agree with everything Tim already wrote. This one was a bit of a headscratcher, although no one should question King Ainge for a while 'round these parts, particularly when it comes to milking value out of relatively low draft picks.

Suffice it to say, Danny and his gang felt the C's needed to get more athletic on the wing, and truthfully they're probably right, especially with Tony Allen's future somewhat up-in-the-air. The Giddens pick was a curious one, although Shoals over at FreeDarko loves him, which is a ringing endorsement in my book. Obviously the major knock on Giddens is character shit; anytime you see the "Lottery-type talent" followed by the inevitable "but" around your name a few too many times, you know you've burned some bridges. Giddens has done his best to convince anyone who'll listen that he's a changed man, and if he is, well, this could be a great pick. Truthfully, the Celtics actually seem like a great fit for him: Garnett surely doesn't suffer fools, and Ray Allen and especially Pierce could be great mentors for the kid. And for the record: yes, the Celtics now have two guys who have survived stabbings. Not sure what to make of this, but it's worth mentioning.

All that said, like Tim, I think the Bill Walker acquisition could be the coup de grace of the evening. Walker is possibly even a bigger question mark than Giddens, although Walker's issues are primarily physical and thus a bit more cut-and-dry. He claims the knee isn't a big deal, but suffice it to say some rather important people disagree, since it's not every day a guy of Walker's talent and skill set slips to #47. However, the guy is a freak: 6-6, 235, built like an All-Pro tight end that can jump out of the gym. What's more, he can actually play basketball: Walker isn't just a guy who lucked into an otherworldly body and freakish athleticism and has now decided to extend his open palm to an NBA team. Quite honestly, if his knee ends up not being the issue that everyone fears, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Bill Walker is better than Tony Allen right now.

As for Semih Erden, well, in the words of the great Chad Ford: "He can be a little wild on and off the court." Color me fucking excited.

No Exactly Giddy, But All Right

I have long ago learned not to doubt Danny Ainge on draft night, so I will let J.R. Giddens off lightly. J.R.'s third year projected PER is a terrible 9.16, but WoW had this kind of nice thing to say about him: "New Mexico guard J.R. Giddens destroyed weaker competition in gathering a PAWS/M of .205 in 2007, but had no games against the top 25 and posted a poor .058 in WS/M his junior year." Okay. What obviously galls us about the Giddens pick is that Chalmers and CDR were just hanging there. Both those guys are probably going to be solid pros, perhaps very good ones. It's tough to see your team bypass such obvious talent. But you can't really question Danny, he's been spot-on so many times, and we'll get to see if that's the case again.

I have no idea about Semih Erden, and it will probably stay that way for a while. But without question the highlight as a Celtics' fan last night was when the Bill Walker acquisition was announced. I mean, it's Bill Walker. On every level it makes sense with a pick so low. And yes, he may never even play in the NBA. But he could also be an All-Star some day. So I was much more enthralled by that than anything else the Celtics did last evening, and it helped make up for the potential Giddens' mishap.

Speaking of mishaps - what the fuck is up with the draft? Every year I convince myself that GMs have a slight idea what they are doing draft night - and I'm always surprised by the level of draft incompetence. Don't get me wrong - I know I sound like an ass by criticizing teams about players who haven't even played yet, but I can't help myself. I'm beginning to doubt how brilliant Sam Presti is when he uses top 5 picks on Green and Westbrook in consecutive years. Chris Wallace can be considered nothing short of a fool (as we already knew) for trading Love, Miller etc. to Minny. The Clippers are clueless as usual. Those three teams committed egregious errors in my book, but the list is much longer. Draft night is not a sound process.

I wanted to say Portland easily took away the best haul, but then Kevin Pritchard and Paul Allen did their regular thing and traded away a lot of the gold. After the Indy trade Portland momentarily had come away with Bayless, Arthur, Dorsey and Omer Asik (who is supposed to be real good in a few years). That's an incredible draft - especially saying the Blazers did not have a top ten pick. But Pritchard is like a speed freak - he trades and then trades again. So Arthur, Dorsey and Asik are all now gone. If Pritchard ever slowed down, he'd be a great GM. Because of Allen's deep coffers he doesn't have to be, though. There was plenty of other good drafting, Miami lucked out, but frankly I can't process it all right now. Too many trades, too much action. It's gonna be a hell of a Summer.

Fun For The 66 Games That It Lasted

ESPN and others are reporting that the Milwaukee Bucks have traded forwards Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons to the Nets for Richard Jefferson. Thus ends the glorious Yi Jianlian era in Milwaukee... he pretty clearly never wanted to be there and now he doesn't have to be, and has even ended up in the major-media market he'd always hoped for (we'll see how that works out). The Bucks, on the other hand, get Jefferson, a nice player who'll either work nicely with Michael Redd or make him even more expendable, depending on how the winds are blowing over Lake Michigan. This will probably throw a wrench in my prediction of Joe Alexander to the Bucks at #8, but eh, screw it, nobody knows anything anyways. Actually, we do know one thing: the Nets will be terrible next year.

What a Difference a Year Makes

Last year around this time I was absolutely awash in anxiety, fixated on the draft to the point of complete distraction, wondering what in the world Mr. Ainge had up his dubious sleeve. Well, now we know, and from what I've heard it's worked out well. I heartily commend Tim for posting on the Celtics' draft options, as I'm kind of at a loss; I mean, it's been quite a while since the Celtics held the coveted last pick in the first round (seriously, think about it; all things considered, it's pretty fucking coveted). A lot of prognosticators have the C's going long-term international a la San Antonio, which makes a lot of sense considering the last team this wants is more payroll, but then again, Danny's notoriously skittish when it comes to foreign talent, so you never know. Tim mentions Chris Douglas-Roberts, and honestly I've been salivating over the thought of him dropping to #30 for a while; it probably won't happen, but he's a guy who could step in and pretty much make soon-to-be-free-agent Tony Allen expendable immediately, bless his heart. Still, I think if there's any year for the C's go international, this is it; Ainge's aversions will be overshadowed by Wyc & Co.'s desire to avoid yet another financial hit. And truthfully, it might be the right call from a talent/personnel standpoint as well.

Quick interjection, apropos of very little: Jermaine O'Neal was reportedly just traded to the Raptors, for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and the 17th overall pick. At extremely first glance, this deal seems like a push... O'Neal could be absolutely huge in Toronto, but as we all know the reverse could be true as well. T.J. Ford's a nice little player; not the caliber of O'Neal, although both share a fairly similar recent medical history. Basically it's a gamble for both teams, only the Pacers get Nesterovic and #17 as well because let's face it, their gamble is just a little bit bigger. A healthy O'Neal on the Raptors would mean that next year there could be five legit teams in the East, with Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, and an ever-improving Dwight Howard in Orlando being the other four. Slowly but surely, the Eastern Conference is ascending from "not-as-bad-as-everyone-thinks" status to "not-actually-that-bad-at-all" status. Some sanguine Chicagoans might argue that a certain draft pick might lift a certain bovine competitor into this mix, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

With that as a segue, Tim offered up a projected Top 10 yesterday so I figure I should do the same. Without further ado, a ten-pick Mock Draft that's more honestly improvised than a Shaq freestyle:

1. Chicago: Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis. This appears to be who the Bulls are picking, and it's honestly fine with me. I think Rose is a marquee point guard, and as Chris Paul and Deron Williams have shown, knee-jerk draft-day devaluation of guards should be passe at this point.

2. Miami: Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas State. Rumors abound that Pat Riley and the Heat want nothing to do with this kid and intend to either trade the pick or flat-out not draft him. I'd venture to call this "stupidity." Rose and Beasley are 1 and 1a in this draft, in my opinion, and to pass on B-Easy at #2 is a foolish move, regardless of circumstance. In five years passing on him at #1 might prove to be foolish as well.

3. Minnesota: O.J. Mayo, SG, USC. If you're 'Sota, I don't really see how you pick anyone else here. Not that I think Mayo is quite in the class of a Beasley or a Rose, but I do think that he's a headline player who's almost certainly the most NBA-ready dude on the board right now, and let's face it, the Timberwolves need that, because they fucking suuuuuck. Then again if you're 'Sota, McHale is your GM and Glen Taylor is your owner, so all bets are off here.

4. Seattle: Jerryd Bayless, PG(?), Arizona. A few days ago there were a boatload of rumors about the Sonics sending the #4 and Chris Wilcox to the Heat for the #2. This would put the Sonics in a position to draft Beasley and play him alongside Kevin Durant, which is insanely wonderful by any stretch of the imagination. These rumors seem to have died down, though, so I give the Sonics Bayless here, who's probably the second-best point guard prospect in the draft, even if as yet he's not really a point guard (a recurring theme, as we shall see).

5. Memphis: Kevin Love, PF, UCLA. I actually think the Grizzlies will do something horrendous here and draft Brook Lopez or something, so for the record, this is what I think they should do in this position. Kevin Love can play, and there's no one else out there who's better that doesn't already play a position that Memphis has covered.

6. New York: Russell Westbrook, PG(?), UCLA. As those who read this site regularly know, I have myself a Knicks jones. They simply fascinate me to no end.... I'm not sure how else to describe it. That said, the new, mightily improved D'Antoni-Walsh Knicks could go in a number of directions here, but I think Mike wants a point guard, and even though Westbrook isn't one yet (see above), his potential, skills and athleticism will win the day here.

7. LA Clippers: Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana. I really don't know... I mean, it's the Clippers. Gordon seems fine, and by all accounts they're looking to trade Maggette, so whatever.

8: Milwaukee: Joe Alexander, SF, West Virginia. I kind of love Joe Alexander: I saw him play quite a bit towards the end of the NCAA season and he was an absolute beast. Exactly the kind of player you see and think to yourself, "I would love to see him on [insert favorite NBA franchise here]." The problem is the other half of the season, when he was apparently inconsistent at best; the basic knock on Alexander is he's a hell of an athlete who hasn't quite figured out how to play basketball. Sometimes that works out pretty fucking well, and sometimes it doesn't. But these are the things that make the draft interesting, am I right? I mostly have Alexander here because apparently he speaks fluent Mandarin, which means that all of the Bucks' problems in finding a basketball friend for Yi Jianlian would be solved.

9. Charlotte: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford. Lopez isn't going to be a Borchardt-level bust, but I honestly don't think he deserves to go higher than this. The track record in the NBA of choosing size over talent is extremely poor, and honestly, when you look at the guys picked before him, are any of them not markedly more talented than Brook Lopez? Best case scenario: Brook Lopez gives the Bobcats a serviceable force in the middle, Okafor can finally range around at the 4 like the poor man's Garnett he's supposed to be, and everything's happy in Charlotte as the 'Cats sneak into the 8th seed. Worst case scenario: ahhh, let's just end this now.

10. New Jersey: Danilo Gallinari, Italia. Gallinari's been exhibiting quite the sack recently, apparently insisting that he be drafted by a New York team in order to best aid his impending world domination. He's probably a little off-base with that, but I imagine him slipping to the Nets given a situation where a lot of NBA teams are now a bit more scared off by foreign talent than they should be. This kid could be really good, and if he does slip to 10, Jersey should snag him. If they don't, two words (maybe three? maybe 2.5?): D.J. Augustin.

Post Parade Draft Strategy

Awash in glory, it's easy to forget the C's hold picks 30 and 60 tomorrow night. But we can bet Danny hasn't forgotten. And I'd like to believe him when he says it will be hard to find immediate help for next year with his picks. But I don't. Granted, I can't expect the Celtics to land a prolific piece tomorrow, but they should be capable of finding another Big Baby type with pick 30. I would understand if Ainge goes the overseas route and wants the prospect to stay there (Hollinger says that there are some terrific international options), but I say chances are Danny drafts like he usually does - which means excellently, with the player he selects paying immediate dividends. Ainge has proven to be a master GM, and he is at his best finding prospects. So who should we expect him to draft? I don't really know, and I don't have have stunning recommendations to make. Surely if a player drops who deserves to go considerably higher, someone like Chris Douglas-Roberts, you would expect that to be the pick. And such a player almost always ends up falling, the way Davis did last year. Like we touched upon yesterday, this year's draft does not appear as deep. But you can guarantee someone of significant value will be there at 30. The question is who.

As has become somewhat of a tradition, there is a glut of "undersized" bigs that will go lower than they deserve in the draft. This year's crop includes Richard Hendrix, Darnell Jackson, Joey Dorsey (whom WoW loves) and possibly D.J. White. Saying that the C's already have Powe and Baby, it is unlikely they would go in that direction. But one of those four might be the best available prospect at 30. Other bigs that I find appealing (and might fit more into the Celtics' scheme at 30 or 60) are Jason Thompson, Ryan Anderson and Aleks Maric.

But it seems more likely that Boston will go with a point or wingman, given the limbo status of House, Cassell and TA. If Bill Walker is healthy he could be a steal at 30, but that is a big "if". I have never seen Mike Green play, but his Hollinger score is good enough that he would probably be a good pick at either 30 or (more likely) 60. Chris Lofton is held in very high regarded by WoW, and Hollinger liked him last year. Amazingly, Lofton is not expected to be drafted, even after he revealed that he was recovering from testicular cancer last season. He would be a steal at 60, and would probably be able to partially replicate House's role immediately. I also like Pat Calathes, who seems to be a unique player because of his size and skill set.

So I don't know what Danny is going to do tomorrow night, but he usually surprises us in a good way. It will be nice to sit back and enjoy the action this year, with few worries to think of. Enjoy the evening; it's good drafting when you're the champs.

Hollinger's Latest, Or: Trying To Not Be Overly Quixotic As The Draft Approaches

Hollinger's new methodology concerning the draft has all been released. Regression analysis predicting third year PER seems cooler than just a three digit number like 500 or 600, but actually I don't see it as much of an upgrade. While the new system might improve some aspects of Hollinger's draft order, it undermines the ability to see who is supposed to be very good; the calculated third year PER's of stars like Paul, Wade and Boozer do not come close to their actual output - the three digit number better indicated the eventual dominance of each year's best players. In itself this is not a big deal, but I like the old way better. It made it clear that Chris Bosh was a better prospect than Nick Collison. Anyway, enough of my griping, it's still an excellent prognosticator, better than any other draft tool I have come across. So, let's look at Hollinger's Top 15, with their projected third year PER's:

1. Michael Beasley - 19.19
2. Kevin Love - 17.80
3. Darrell Arthur - 15.82
4. Marreese Speights - 15.02
5. D.J. Augustin - 14.88
6. Derrick Rose - 14.69
7. Joe Alexander - 14.58
8. Brook Lopez - 14.21
9. Mario Chalmers - 14.03
10. Jerryd Bayless - 14.03
11. Roy Hibbert - 14.02
12. Kosta Koufos - 13.32
13. Donte Greene - 13.17
14. Darnell Jackson - 13.17
15. DeAndre Jordan - 13.17

It's really not that shocking a list (which is something I think Hollinger was looking for when he revised his data analysis.) Noticeable absences are O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, and Anthony Randolph. An argument Hollinger makes is that the popular belief of this being a draft deep in guards is fraudulent, and it is actually the bigs that will be higly regarded down the road. He may be right. Personally, I'm having a hard time getting a good read on this draft, but my suspicions are that it might not be as deep as some are saying. Hollinger's number's back this theory.

Beasley certainly looks to be the best prospect. If Miami is lucky enough to nab him at #2, they should pounce. If Chicago is smart they'd take him first. He is the one undeniable All-Star this draft has to offer. I agree with Hollinger (and WoW's) data that Kevin Love is the second best prospect. It will be interesting to see if Minnesota goes for him at #3, because as devastating a combo as Big Al and Love would make offensively, you could be looking at a defensive quagmire. If I were McHale I would probably take the risk. While Love doesn't appear to have Beasley's upside, he is an extremely safe and quality pick; words I never thought I would utter in Love's regard at the beginning of last season.

And after the Beasley-Love combo we get to what everybody wants to talk about: The Freshman Guards! The Freshman Guards! The babble over Rose, Mayo, Bayless, and Gordon (not to mention Westbrook, who might as well have been a freshman)has been endless, and it is probably undeserved hype. I will go on record (as quite a few have) in saying that I doubt Gordon and Westbrook will be noteworthy pros. Mayo has more promise, I see him as being similar to Larry Hughes; but in no way does he deserve to be picked in the top three. That leads us to the Rose/Bayless debate, where I stand in the significant minority in favoring Bayless, who is supposedly going to drop on Thursday night. Anyway, for what it's worth, here's my top ten prospects:

1. Beasley - I agree wholeheartedly with what a GM said in Chad Ford's article today - Beasley easily appears the best prospect in the draft, and people are sweating Rose way too much. When will we start to see how stupid it is to value "good character" over clearly superior talent?

2. Love - This guy will become a dominant rebounder and passer in the league for years to come. The question is whether he will be able to raise his game another notch and become a perennial All-Star. It's not as high-falutin' an idea as it sounds - Love's numbers are that good.

3. Bayless - He's been in most mock drafts' top 5 the entire year, but I feel like he is still underrated. Jerryd's Hollinger and WoW stats don't stand out, but this guy can just flat out play. Of all the hyped freshman guards, Bayless is the only one in my eyes who can potentially become a #1 scorer on a good team. I mean, offensively Bayless can basically get wherever he wants. Rose can do this too, but Bayless is under control, and seems to have more of an attack mentality. There's nothing to dislike about him offensively; his talent should alleviate concerns about whether he is a point or shooting guard. Defensively there might be issues, but Bayless could be athletic enough to make up for his average measurements and (relatively) short wingspan. All in all, I still don't feel right putting Rose ahead of him.

4. Rose - Derrick is the most hyped player in the draft, and while he has the talent to make an All-Star game or two, the inferences to Chris Paul and Deron Williams need to end. My biggest qualm with those comparisons is that Rose has not shown himself to be nearly that kind of a passer. Yes, he's incredibly explosive, but it's not clear if he knows how to harness that power fully. That makes him totally different from Paul in college (as the numbers attest.) He also is not as big as people think; Bayless is actually taller than him. Nonetheless, he's a heck of a prospect, and probably the last of the four player on this list who have the potential to turn into a big time star - although you never know.

5. Roy Hibbert - Whoa, baby. Before you switch your website, listen to my logic. Roy plays the most important position on the floor, has incredible size, solid numbers, and could become excellent defensively. Now that the potential stars are off the board, what more could you want? Plus Hibbert has all those intangibles that everybody goes ga-ga over. Make no mistake - Roy has talent, and his position predicates a slot this high. He's superior to Brook Lopez, who looks like Chris Mihm all over again.
6. Marreese Speights - A banger with great numbers (7.2 PAWS/40) deserves to be picked this high. It seems inevitable that Speights will produce a solid PER for years to come. We are looking at an underrated gem.

7. Darrell Arthur - This is a straight Hollinger pick. His WoW is negligible, and he has never really stood out when I have watched him play. But if he's ranked third on Hollinger's board he's good enough to go here.

8. Mayo - This spot seems about right for O.J. I didn't mean the Hughes analogy disparagingly - Larry used to be very good. Alas, I don't know if O.J. will ever achieve 2004 Hughes-level output. Anyway, whoever drafts him will probably be slightly disappointed down the road.

9. D.J. Augustin - At this point I'd like to say I don't know enough about Danilo Gallinari to put him on my list, but that's just ignorance on my behalf. Augustin, somewhat surprisingly, was the highest rated guard on Hollinger's list. Dude is a "pure" point, which gives him a different quality than his more hyped brethren. D.J. should be in the very least a fun player to watch. You have to be worried about him defensively blah, blah, blah.

10. Joe Alexander - Alexander has the potential to be very good because of his athleticism, so he belongs here. But it wouldn't be shocking to see him disappoint. I was more excited with the tenth spot last year - there seems to be a faster talent drop this year, with less future starters available to be picked. Still, some interesting (bench) pieces will remain through the second round. We'll examine those bits of mild intrigue later in the week, and try to figure out if any of it could work for the Celtics.

Silence Is Golden

Never forget, baby, never forget. Our blog has been particularly quiet in the post-victory haze because it should be. I mean the Celtics just won the Championship. What is there to say? Incredible. Like we always harp about, this was an unprecedented turnaround, but I am having a hard time articulating how unprecedented it was. What we witnessed in the last 13 months simply does not happen in the NBA. Anyone who says it does is lying; and while teams may now try to copy the Ainge model of success, I don't know if they'll have much luck. Danny struck while the iron was hot, and fetching together a group of superstars is hardly that easy most of the time.

So it's pretty unbelievable, and it should stay that way in our minds. But now, because we love the NBA, let's mention the draft and the accompanying crazy trade rumors. As is to be expected, you are hearing all kinds of stuff, and it's hard to know what to believe (if any of it). One thing I will say when it comes to the draft - in my opinion it's a heck of a lot smarter to listen to the statheads than the general news media covering the prospects' potential. Hollinger has updated his system (I'm not sure I like it as much) and released his rankings of this year's big men. Wages of Wins has some interesting stuff to say. And so does this guy. I'm sure we'll be talking draft as the week progresses, and it will be interesting if in the wake of the Celtics' success another team tries to go with a similar approach and shoots for the moon. As Celtics fans we are fortunate enough to say that we already landed. Incredible.