Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Hollinger Rocks My World

Wow. I've read so much shit about prospects by this time every year that I hardly believe anything. But then I read John Hollinger's column today. And it is shocking. Using a number of factors, which he goes into detail about, Hollinger has created a "system" that seems vastly superior to those used by most NBA gurus. His historical evidence is outstanding and very persuasive. Like his PER method, it is not without flaws, but is an excellent tool for quantifying players' value.
There is so much information in these rankings that I will only touch on a few things now; I'm sure we will be talking about them more in the next few days. First off, Durant is on the top, high above Oden or anyone else (to see the actual rankings for this year's draft class scale to near the bottom of the article.) Guess who is third on the list? My man Mike Conley. Guess that means I have to stop ragging on him. Acie Law is ranked a lowly 27th. This means I'm probably a little nuts thinking Law will be the best point guard in the draft, and I have to readjust my thinking accordingly.

That is pretty fascinating in itself, but let's get Celtics-specific here. Before I forget - Yi is not rated because he did not play in college. The big news: Jeff Green is ranked 14th and Corey Brewer is ranked 24th. Holy Jesus. In other words, neither of those guys seems like the right pick at #5. Green falls into an acceptable area with a score of 505, Brewer's is a much less palatable 462. My own guy Julian Wright is ranked 19th with a score of 481. Al Thorton is 25th with a score of 447.

So who should the C's pick based on Hollinger's stats? How does Thaddeus Young sound? You read that right. To be brief, and that's all I have time for now, the Celtics seem wiser to select Young, Brandan Wright, Al Horford or Jo Noah than Green, Brewer, Thorton or Julian Wright. Try wrapping your mind around this, it might take a while, but Hollinger's argument is extremely substantial.

1 comment:

tim said...

Once you go below 500 there is a real dropoff - the top talent with score below 500 since 2002:
Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince, David West, David Lee, and Chris Kaman.