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Great centers are the easiest way to the title; it is why Dream or Oden will always be drafted ahead of MJ or Durant. This said, the art of low post basketball has all but evaporated from the NBA, as we lamented last week. Out of this desert arrives Howard. The Magic, even more than the Spurs with Duncan, seem to understand that the key to their success is to just get him the ball down low. As has been well documented recently, Dwight Howard has more dunks than most teams. You watch Orlando and have a sense of actual low post basketball. All this is super, and I commend Orlando and Howard for it, but I can't help but wonder if people are slightly miscasting Howard as a dominant center. Only a fool would say he is not dominant, but we so quickly assume Howard is a center just because he is usually the biggest guy out there. And this is where it gets tricky.
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And in Howard, at this stage, I'm not so sure I see it, which puts me in the minority. Just about everybody is referring to Dwight as the Modern Great Center, best articulated by Shoals in a must-read piece last week. The main gist of all the praise is that Howard is the perfect new age center; a beast that simply cannot be handled down low, but at the same time is agile and quick enough to outrun swingmen. The problem for me is that Howard still reminds me more of pre-surgery Amare than a true center, in other words a hellish power forward that is an impossible matchup problem, but nonetheless is really a power forward. What is wrong with that? Much more than you expect.
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While great power forwards are unbelievable specimens of strength, power and athleticism, they lack the base quality of dominance that a true center possesses. Try as they might, power forwards still have to work around players; they aren't naturally the core of the sphere. Historically this has meant less overall dominance, and there is no reason to expect that to change. Karl Malone, Barkley, Shawn Kemp and Webber never won titles. Nowitzki, Amare and KG have yet to (we'll talk what all this means to the Celtics in a forthcoming post). McHale won several championships, but was the second star; and Rodman cannot even be considered a number two on those Pistons and Bulls teams.
So Howard best be a center. Otherwise with Otis Smith calling the shots down there I wouldn't be getting ready to win any titles, because it's unlikely he brings in anybody better than Howard. When Dwight came into the league he was considered a power forward; a monstrous power forward, but a four nonetheless. His scouting report has come to beautiful fruition, and I now wonder if we are asking him to do too much more. Howard has never had a polished inside game, but with his size there is question as to whether he needs one. It's a very good question. Still, Howard does not make me recall Shaq, but the old Amare and Kemp. Both of those guys were beasts; they simply would overpower you. Against the best competition they could still make the opponent look silly; Amare against San Antonio in '05 the most glaring example. But like with most power forwards, neither were ever able to get their team over the hump. Howard is bigger and taller than both Kemp and Amare, but their images do not leave my mind.
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What Dwight has over Moses and almost all these other past dominate centers is his size; he is (much) bigger than almost all of them. The irony of Howard not being considered a center is he has a better body than his desired predecessors. This well might mean that it is only time before he develops into a true center. I wasn't around to see Moses do this in the seventies, however, so I have little idea how the evolution works. I guess that's why I'm so confused right now. I'm not sure becoming a center is developmental - perhaps either you are or are not. Yao came into the league a true center - he's improved leaps and bounds, but from his pro indoctrination we knew what he was. Howard is different.
But how different? Am I being foolish? Eric Neel certainly thinks so, and the reasons seem abundantly valid. When you are as big as Howard is, and as strong, how can you not be like Shaq? Especially in this day and age, where the post is so scantily guarded, and where seemingly no one is able to even remotely contain Howard. Twenty years ago you had to bang in the box, it was a minor war in there, a positioning minefield. Today Howard just waltzes into the paint, and jumps ridiculously high to receive and then score the ball. With the NBA clamping down on contact, there is no answer for Dwight. It is very easy to see why he reminds people of Shaq, perhaps the center that all others should be judged by.
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In closing it is worth remembering the basic truth that centers develop more slowly than other positional players. What you see at 22 is not at all what you will see at 29. If Howard is a center, that means we are just witnessing the beginning of the sunrise, and noon is not even conceivable yet. This point is far less radical if he is a power forward. It is safe to say that Howard's true position is one of the more important long term questions for fans of the NBA; along with whether LeBron will flee Cleveland, and whether Dwyane Wade will be able to stay healthy. A few years ago we touted Amare the way Howard is now being touted. They were both around the same age, and if anything Amare was more viscerally devastating. But Dwight is bigger, much bigger. And because of this size we are for the first time really having to consider the reality of the "modern" center, and whether it truly can exist. I will hold my doubts a while longer; certainly till the playoffs, when the lanes suddenly become tighter. But what is indisputable is that Dwight Howard is one of the more fascinating players in the game. And while there has never been a player like him, clarifying his lineage is of utmost importance.
4 comments:
Semantics ... I lost you at Duncan is a Center, ummm no, and he has never started as such. He's always the starting power forward, alongside David Robinson at first, now Oberto, in between, who knows who cares, he is a PF.
Good point there Brick. Tim I think you may be just a little bit off on this one buddy (but completely right on the $ for everything else you have written!). TD is a power forward. Amare is a center. Size doesn't matter (pardon the pub), it's how the position is played.
Although Malone, Barkley, and Dirk haven't won championships, I don't think it's because of the whole center/pf issue. Malone and Barkley did not win championships because they were in the Jordan era. Dirk didn't win a championship because of the friggin refs. Teams that have a strong 4 but not a strong 5 have won championships (TD) and have the potential to continue to do so.
Howard is a center. He will win championships if he has a good team around him. It's all about great teams - not about the position necessarily. Howard, as a center, "controls" the game as well as Duncan does, more so than Yao - you're making power forwards out to be passive players - by your logic, Yao is a power forward. It doesn't matter - Howard is a pivot force.
Walton won a title in the late 70's when the NBA was an open range (Knicks, Lakers, Celtics, Bucks, Warriors, Sonics, and Bullets also won in the decade). Russell had the best team, hands down, in his era. Hakeem won with a savvy Rockets team during MJ's time off. Shaq had Kobe.
How do you explain the Bad Boy Pistons - their HOF backcourt was their strength. Laimbeer? Seriously? The Jordan Bulls had Longley, Wennington, and Bill Cartwright. It's about the TEAM. A solid pivotman just puts the stamp on the envelope.
Lebron will never win in Cleveland - he'll have a lot of work ahead in 2010-2011 if he has to get 5 titles.
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